Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States are on the verge of acquiring their one-millionth Bitcoin , a milestone expected to be reached this week. This development comes as traders anticipate favorable movements in the cryptocurrency market throughout November, driven by significant events awaiting the US and global landscape, including the upcoming presidential election, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and Russia’s recent decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban.
Currently, US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers hold approximately 976,893 Bitcoins, which represents around 5% of Bitcoin ’s total market capitalization of $1.34 trillion, according to data analytics from Apollo and SoSoValue. To acquire the additional 23,107 Bitcoins needed to hit the one-million mark, these ETFs would require net inflows of around $1.55 billion at current pricing. This translates to an average daily net inflow of approximately $301 million for the remainder of the week. Notably, the last two weeks alone saw about $3 billion flowing into these funds, creating a strong momentum for future gains.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable price surges following halving events, with the most recent occurring in April 2024. The results of the US presidential election on November 5 could further influence Bitcoin ’s value, as past data suggests that significant electoral outcomes tend to correlate with market rallies. For instance, following the May 2020 halving and the election of Joe Biden, Bitcoin ’s price jumped nearly 43%.
The impending meetings of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee on November 6 and 7 are also pivotal. Current forecasts indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point drop in interest rates, which would alleviate financial strains on consumers and potentially boost market performance, at least temporarily. Moreover, Russia’s decision to eliminate its Bitcoin mining ban enhances Bitcoin ’s network security and decentralization, serving as another positive catalyst for the cryptocurrency.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700, according to CoinMarketCap data, facing challenges to maintain levels above $70,000, although there is a solid support level at $65,000. Observers note a significant accumulation of long positions just below this level, with further declines potentially exposing support at the $60,000 level.
