West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose sharply in Asian trade on Monday, climbing about 8% to near $98 a barrel as markets reacted to escalating supply risks in the Middle East. The move was driven by fresh fears over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.
The rally followed warnings from the US president that the navy had been instructed to block vessels entering or leaving the strait. The latest threat came after discussions between the United States and Iran failed to produce progress, with tensions intensifying over Tehran’s nuclear program. The prospect of restricted access through the narrow waterway has heightened concern that a meaningful share of global crude and refined product flows could be disrupted.
Additional pressure on markets came from reports that US forces would begin a blockade of maritime traffic linked to Iranian ports. The escalation has raised the risk premium across energy markets, with traders positioning for a tighter supply environment if shipping lanes become more dangerous or delayed.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia said it has restored full pumping capacity on its East-West pipeline to 7 million barrels a day. The line is a key export route that allows crude to move toward the Red Sea, giving the kingdom greater flexibility if Gulf shipping lanes face interruption. Even so, the announcement has not offset the broader geopolitical shock.
From a technical perspective, WTI remains in a constructive position. Prices are holding well above the 20-day exponential moving average near $93, indicating that the near-term trend is still intact. Momentum has cooled somewhat, however, with the 14-day relative strength index easing away from overbought levels.
Initial support is seen near the 20-day average, where buying interest could re-emerge on any pullback. A daily close below that level would weaken the short-term bullish setup and open the way for a deeper correction. If support holds, the market could make another attempt to extend gains toward the next resistance area near $107.
