On Monday, the S&P 500 rose as recession fears continued easing before a busy week as the Fed releases the minutes of its meeting in July, while chairman Jerome Powell will likely offer cues on future monetary policy on Friday at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium.
The NASDAQ Composite climbed 0.5%, the S&P 500 traded 0.5% and the dow jones Industrial Average was up 207 points, or 0.5%.
Goldman Sachs revised its probability for a 12-month U.S. recession from 25% to 20% and cited the recent economic data that shows no indication of a downturn.
The increase was positioned midway between the 35% estimate during 2023’s bank turmoil and the long-term average recession probability of 15%, based on the history of a recession happening every 7 years.
Macquarie said in a recent note the recession fear reversal that’s taken place since August 5 has been the result of better data, which has made the US economy look resilient and sturdy again.
The easing recession fears come before a busy week for clues on monetary policy as the Fed will be releasing the minutes from its July 31 to August 1 meeting on Wednesday, mere days before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
