The EUR/JPY pair edged higher to around 185 in early European trading on Thursday, supported by a firmer EURO and renewed expectations that the European Central Bank may continue tightening policy. Recent comments from ECB officials have reinforced the view that rates could rise again if inflation risks intensify.
Market pricing now reflects a stronger chance of a 25-basis-point increase in the ECB deposit rate in June. A Reuters poll showed that about 85% of economists expect the rate to move to 2.25%, a notable shift from earlier expectations before the April policy meeting. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said the likelihood of another rate increase has risen as the Iran war threatens to add to inflationary pressures.
At the same time, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has urged caution, saying policymakers need to assess the broader effect of the conflict on both growth and inflation before deciding on the next move.
On the Japanese side, Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu warned that an energy shock tied to the Iran war could weigh heavily on the economy, potentially even more than the 1973 oil crisis. He said the central bank must continue monitoring prices, labor-market conditions and financial stability closely as it considers any further policy adjustment.
The yen’s downside may be limited by the possibility of official intervention if the currency weakens too quickly. Japanese authorities have repeatedly signaled that they are watching exchange-rate moves closely, and continued coordination with the US has been emphasized by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. That prospect may help restrain gains in EUR/JPY even as the EURO benefits from expectations of tighter ECB policy.A new POLITICO poll suggests that crypto remains a low-priority issue for most US adults, even as the industry intensifies its lobbying ahead of the midterm elections. Only 4% of respondents said a candidate’s stance on crypto policy would be an important factor in deciding how to vote, placing digital assets far behind more immediate economic concerns.
The survey of 2,035 US adults found that affordable housing, protection against consumer fraud and lower bank fees were the top three issues people wanted Congress to address. Just 18% said establishing rules for the crypto market should be a top priority, only slightly ahead of regulating large banks at 17%. The results point to a clear mismatch between voter concerns and the priorities of crypto industry lobbyists, who have been pressing lawmakers to advance legislation before the midterms.
The industry has also committed substantial resources to politics. Crypto-related groups spent more than $130 million in the 2024 election cycle, the largest outlay from any industry, and have already directed about $320 million toward the 2026 midterms, according to researcher Molly White. In several congressional races this year, lobbyists have spent millions opposing candidates seen as hostile to the sector.
Public opinion on legitimizing crypto as a mainstream financial asset remains divided. The poll showed that 27% of respondents support or strongly support federal action to normalize crypto, while 31% oppose or strongly oppose such efforts. More than half said they had never traded crypto and would not consider doing so, while 19% said they had traded it. Among current or former traders, 7% said a candidate’s position on crypto could affect their vote.
The findings also suggest that many Americans still view crypto as speculative. Forty-five percent said investing in it is a risk not worth taking, even if the potential returns are high, compared with 25% who believe it is worth the risk. The survey contrasts with a separate HarrisX poll that found a larger share of registered voters might support a candidate backing a long-delayed crypto bill. Lawmakers are expected to revisit that legislation as the Senate Banking Committee prepares to vote on whether to advance it.
