Crypto liquidity provider Wintermute said it is expanding into prediction markets, adding another segment to its institutional trading business as the sector gains traction. The firm, which says it handles about $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, said it will provide liquidity across event contracts on leading venues. It did not identify the specific platforms involved.
Wintermute described prediction markets as a market with the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity characteristics of an early-stage one. The company said that for these markets to serve as a dependable source of real-time probability estimates, they need consistent two-sided liquidity. In practice, that means continuous bid and offer prices that can narrow spreads, support larger trade sizes and improve the quality of prices used to infer market sentiment.
The company said prediction markets are evolving from a niche forecasting tool into a broader venue for trading event risk. Its role will be to quote both sides of the market continuously across event contracts, a step that may make the markets more efficient and easier to trade for larger participants.
Wintermute also pointed to operational overlap with its existing business in spot trading, derivatives, decentralized finance and over-the-counter crypto markets. That overlap may help connect prediction markets with wider DeFi infrastructure, including collateral reuse, yield strategies on locked capital and oracle systems that draw on event-contract prices.
The move comes as prediction markets continue to scale. According to DeFiRate, the two largest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, together generate roughly $5.8 billion in notional weekly volume, with nearly 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly transactions. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, accounts for about 70% of that volume. Politics and sports remain the most heavily traded categories on both platforms.USD/CAD extended gains for a second straight session on Monday as demand for the US dollar improved. The pair moved back above 1.3800 in Asian trading, although buying interest remained restrained and prices stayed below last week’s peak near 1.3870, the highest level since mid-April.
The greenback continues to draw support from renewed geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Ongoing tensions around US-Iran negotiations, combined with Israel’s military action in Lebanon, have kept risk sentiment fragile and encouraged flows into the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Progress toward an agreement remains difficult, with disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program and access to the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved.
Additional support for the dollar came from signs that Washington has adopted a tougher stance in talks with Tehran. At the same time, markets continue to price in the possibility of a Fed rate hike before year-end, helping the currency recover after last week’s pullback from a two-week low. In contrast, the Canadian dollar has faced pressure from weak domestic data after Canada’s economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026.
That said, rebounding crude oil prices have offered some support to the loonie. Oil recovered from a more than one-month low reached on Friday, limiting the downside for the commodity-linked currency and preventing a sharper rise in USD/CAD. The recent recovery in energy prices suggests that further gains in the pair may be harder to sustain without stronger follow-through buying.
For now, the balance of forces leaves the pair trading with a mild bullish tone, but not yet in a position to confirm a renewed advance toward recent highs.
