The US Dollar Index held near 101 in early European trading on Tuesday, extending a strong monthly advance and heading for its largest gain in almost a year. The move reflects growing confidence in US economic resilience and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may still need to tighten policy further.
At its June meeting, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. More importantly for markets, policymakers removed language that had suggested a willingness to cut rates later this year. The shift was interpreted as more hawkish and reinforced the view that the central bank remains focused on containing inflation despite signs of slowing growth elsewhere.
Under the new leadership of Chair Kevin Warsh, traders have increased bets on additional rate hikes before year-end. Futures pricing now implies roughly a 63% probability of a rate increase by September, according to Fed funds markets. That expectation has helped support the dollar against major peers, as higher US rates generally make the currency more attractive to global investors.
Attention is now turning to Thursday’s June employment report, which could shape the next move in currency markets. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 110,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%. The labor market has delivered three straight months of stronger-than-expected job growth, adding to the case for a more restrictive policy stance.
A softer-than-expected report could quickly change that outlook. Signs that hiring is cooling would strengthen arguments for a more cautious Fed and could weigh on the dollar. For now, however, the broader message from the data and the central bank is supporting the greenback, with traders watching closely for evidence that labor-market momentum is beginning to fade.Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly accumulating spot Bitcoin , a development that suggests the cryptocurrency’s current price range is becoming more attractive to large institutional investors, according to MidChains chief executive Basil Al Askari.
Al Askari said the pattern reflects a shift in market participation. Retail activity has slowed, but institutional and corporate demand appears to be strengthening. He said at least one sovereign wealth fund has been buying spot Bitcoin , and that another could begin doing so in the coming weeks.
Sovereign wealth funds are state-owned investment vehicles typically backed by national reserves, which gives their purchases broader significance than ordinary private speculation. Collectively, these funds manage more than $13 trillion, so even modest allocations can influence market sentiment and encourage other institutions to follow.
Addressing whether the current market level represents an attractive entry point, Al Askari described it as a price range that many large funds may view as suitable for gradual accumulation. He said these buyers usually have a long time horizon and are less concerned with short-term volatility than with building exposure over time.
He added that the immediate effect on Bitcoin ’s price may be limited. However, sovereign fund participation can send a strong signal to other large investors that may still be waiting on the sidelines. That type of validation may prompt more institutions to begin testing exposure to Bitcoin through spot purchases or related investment vehicles.
There are already examples of state-linked investors taking positions in the asset. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company disclosed a $437 million stake in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust in February 2025. Bhutan’s Druk Holding and Investments is also among the earliest sovereign holders, although it has reduced some of its exposure this year.
At the same time, the broader market remains uneven. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen more than $4.1 billion in outflows so far this month. Yet corporate buyers, led by Strategy, have continued to add to their holdings, with the company purchasing 3,657 Bitcoin this month alone. The divergence suggests that while some investors are cutting risk, others are using the decline to accumulate.
