An analysis by the options protocol Derive reveals that Ethereum has less than a 10% likelihood of reaching the coveted $5,000 milestone by the end of 2024. This assessment comes in the wake of notable inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which may indicate an approaching supply-side crunch. Currently, Ethereum (ETH) would need to surge 37% from its existing price of $3,669 to hit the $5,000 target.
Derive’s recent market report highlights that the probability of ETH reaching $5,000 peaked at 16%, but has since declined to just over 8%. The data also points to a balanced distribution between call and put options on Ether, reflecting a neutral sentiment among traders.
Some traders maintain a more optimistic outlook. One participant noted their target for ETH remains set at $5,000 by year-end, suggesting a divergence in market expectations. Concurrently, another Ethereum contributor emphasized the substantial daily inflows into Ether ETFs, totaling $305 million on December 10, as a potential indicator of an impending supply crisis. Notably, the Fidelity Ethereum Fund accounted for a significant portion of these inflows, amounting to $202.2 million.
Furthermore, speculation is stirring regarding a potential new all-time high for Ether, which previously reached $4,878 in November 2021. Some observers expect this peak could be approached within days, driven by a combination of strong market momentum and increased institutional investment through ETFs. Additional insights suggest that Ethereum is undergoing structural changes, aligning with a trend of consistent and substantial ETF flows.
Overall, despite varying perspectives on Ethereum ’s price movement, the current market dynamics indicate a notable interest in Ether amid potential shifts in supply and demand. Investors should remain cautious and conduct thorough research as they navigate these developments. At press time, each ETH token was trading at $3,667, representing a 1.5% decline in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
