The EUR/USD currency pair was trading below 1.1500 during the European trading session on Wednesday, reflecting sustained downward momentum. After closing a fifth consecutive day in negative territory, the EURO reached its lowest level since early August at 1.1473 on Tuesday. Although there was a brief rebound in early trading, the pair remains constrained just below the 1.1500 level. The prevailing technical environment indicates a bearish outlook remains intact, with momentum unlikely to reverse in the near term.
Market sentiment continues to be cautious amid a broader risk-averse atmosphere. Wall Street’s main indexes declined sharply, reinforcing dollar strength and exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD . European stocks also displayed mixed results, and US stock index futures traded with limited clarity, implying ongoing uncertainty. Investors are preparing for critical US economic indicators, notably the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, slated for release later in the day. Expectations point toward a modest private-sector job gain, with the potential for positive surprises to strengthen the US dollar further and press the EURO lower.
Analysts highlight that a higher-than-forecast ADP reading could reinforce expectations of a continued rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, while weaker results might bolster prospects of a rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns about a 70% probability to a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming meeting, which could influence dollar positioning and USD/EUR dynamics accordingly. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI will be scrutinized for signs of economic resilience; a robust report may underpin dollar strength, whereas a disappointing figure could temper USD gains.
Technically, EUR/USD remains within a descending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index below 40, implying more room on the downside before reaching oversold levels. Immediate support levels are observed near 1.1450 and 1.1400, while resistance zones lie around 1.1500 and 1.1550. The EURO ’s movement is heavily influenced by both macroeconomic indicators and broader monetary policy expectations set by the European Central Bank, which targets price stability through interest rate adjustments. Inflation data and economic performance figures for major eurozone economies continue to be paramount in shaping the EURO ’s trajectory amid global economic uncertainties.
