gold ’s recent record rally has encountered resistance, with the precious metal retreating from its all-time high of $4,059. Despite this pullback, prices have remained above the critical $4,000 level, which has historically acted as a strong support zone. Market participants are closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, which are expected to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.
The retracement reflects a moderation in risk aversion amid developments in the Israel-Hamas peace process and renewed optimism regarding the partial reopening of the U.S. government. An agreement signed by Israel and Hamas aims to initiate the first phase of a peace plan, including the release of hostages. Meanwhile, hopes for a federal government shutdown resolution have increased, as some Senate leaders consider advancing partial funding bills. These developments have momentarily reduced gold ’s appeal as a safe haven and driven a modest rally in risk sentiment.
Market sentiment remains cautious, however, given that no definitive resolution has emerged. Political uncertainty in France and Japan, coupled with expectations of renewed fiscal stimulus globally, continue to support safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year underpin strong support for gold . Futures markets fully price in a rate reduction in October, with an 80% chance of another cut in December, signaling traders’ belief that loose monetary policy will persist.
Technical analysis of the gold price on the four-hour chart suggests that the ongoing correction may be limited. The momentum points toward another attempt to challenge the recent high, with resistance around the $4,059 level. Conversely, if the correction deepens, immediate support is seen around the 21-day moving average at approximately $3,979, with further support at $3,906. The psychological level of $3,850 remains a critical zone for sellers to defend.
