Kalshi has thrown its support behind a new lobbying effort aimed at shaping the future of prediction markets in Washington. The group, called Americans for Fair Markets, has appointed former White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich as a strategic adviser and is being positioned as a counterweight to sports betting operators and casinos.
The initiative enters a crowded policy fight. Kalshi said the new group will work to influence federal rules governing prediction markets and will spend on public campaigns to challenge what it describes as misleading claims about the industry. It joins a wider push that already includes the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an advocacy group launched in December 2025 with backing from Coinbase, Crypto.com and Robinhood.
The launch comes as regulators and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of the sector. On the same day, the US House opened an investigation into Kalshi and its chief rival, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms address insider trading. Prediction markets have faced growing attention in the United States and overseas as officials weigh whether the contracts should be regulated as financial products or treated as gambling.
The debate also has a political dimension. President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals on the issue. He criticized prediction markets last month over bets tied to the Iran war, but later suggested the US could fall behind if it fails to permit the platforms. His son, Donald Trump Jr., has invested in Polymarket, sits on its advisory board and also advises Kalshi.
Americans for Fair Markets said it will support the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as the main federal regulator and back standards such as know-your-customer checks, bans on insider trading and limits on markets linked to violence or terrorism. The group is also expected to argue that federally regulated venues offer stronger consumer safeguards than state-level gambling frameworks.
John Bivona, Kalshi’s head of government relations, said the industry should not be overwhelmed by entrenched interests protecting their monopolies. He added that millions of Americans want regulated, open and fair prediction markets, and that the new campaign is intended to secure access to them.Asian equities advanced broadly on Monday as investors welcomed weekend reports suggesting progress toward a possible US-Iran agreement, lifting demand for risk-sensitive assets. Japan’s nikkei 225 climbed past the 65,000 mark to a new record, while shares in South Korea, Hong Kong, and India also gained momentum. The move reflected a stronger start to the week after several sessions of geopolitical uncertainty.
Sentiment improved after reports indicated that Washington and Tehran may be close to an arrangement that could extend a ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of reduced tensions in the region helped drive crude oil prices lower, easing concerns about inflation and supporting risk appetite across financial markets. Lower oil prices also put downward pressure on bond yields, adding to the appeal of equities.
The rally, however, remained tempered by unresolved disputes. The US and Iran still appear divided over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear program, and the absence of a formal agreement leaves room for renewed volatility. In addition, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his representatives should not hurry into a deal, underscoring the fragility of the current optimism.
Broader market sentiment is also being shaped by a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Recent US inflation data came in sticky, while several Federal Reserve officials have delivered hawkish comments that keep alive the possibility of further tightening. That combination has limited the scale of the risk-on move, even as investors respond positively to lower energy prices and hopes of de-escalation.
Trading conditions may stay thin, with holidays limiting liquidity in many European and US markets. Even so, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the main driver of market direction in the near term, with investors closely watching for any signs that the tentative progress can turn into a durable agreement.
