Recent analysis of on-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has reached a pivotal crossover, a historical indicator often associated with bullish price movements for Bitcoin . This crossover occurs when the 90-day moving average (MA) of the MPI surpasses its 365-day counterpart.
The MPI measures the relationship between total miner outflow — the amount of Bitcoin flowing out of wallets controlled by miners — and its annual moving average. A high MPI value suggests that miners are transferring more Bitcoin than usual, typically for selling purposes, which may exert downward pressure on prices. Conversely, a lower MPI indicates that outflows are below the historical average, signaling a preference among miners to hold their assets.
In this instance, the focus lies not on the MPI itself but rather on the MPI Momentum, a derivative indicator utilizing both the 90-day and 365-day moving averages. Recent data shows that the 90-day MA has crossed above the 365-day MA, indicative of an increase in miner selling momentum.
Interestingly, despite the implications of increased miner selling, precedent suggests that this pattern has historically led to favorable price trends for Bitcoin . Historically, crossovers such as this have preceded extended bullish phases. A comparable situation occurred in December 2022, marking a significant point in Bitcoin ’s price trajectory.
Since the recent crossover, the divergence between the two moving averages has continued, suggesting robust momentum remains in play. Typically, Bitcoin peaks form when the 90-day moving average has established significant distance from the 365-day MA. Consequently, the current positioning hints at potential further room for growth in this cycle before any sell-off by miners may occur.
In terms of market performance, Bitcoin experienced volatility but has shown resilience; after a dip toward the $98,000 level, it has rebounded to approximately $102,500, reflecting underlying strength amid market fluctuations.
