gold prices have continued their upward trajectory for a sixth consecutive session, reaching new all-time highs above $3,500 per ounce. The strong rally reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and easing expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, supporting safe-haven demand for the precious metal.
The US dollar has experienced a mild rebound from over one-month lows, which has curbed gold ’s gains somewhat. The dollar’s recovery was driven by profit-taking activity, as traders position themselves ahead of a series of key economic indicators and policy announcements. Notably, the upcoming release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI will be closely monitored, as traders assess the likelihood of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point reduction is already priced in, with the PMI expected to show continued contraction, which could reinforce dovish expectations and buoy gold prices further.
Concerns over the Fed’s independence have also played a role in supporting precious metals. Political developments, such as efforts by the U.S. leadership to influence the central bank’s composition toward dovish officials, have added to uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to reinforce gold ’s status as a secure asset. Recent developments include Ukraine planning new strikes against Russian targets, emphasizing the persistent volatility in the region. Meanwhile, statements from President Trump expressing disappointment over recent diplomatic efforts have kept geopolitical risks in focus.
Technical analysis indicates that gold ’s rally remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 71, suggesting momentum is strong but not yet overextended. Strong bullish signals are also confirmed by the crossover of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. Immediate resistance is seen at the record high of approximately $3,509, with a psychological barrier at $3,550. On the downside, initial support is identified around $3,475, with a broader weekly low near $3,437. Breaks below this level could see further declines toward the $3,400 level.
