CryptoQuant said the ownership structure among large Bitcoin holders is weakening, a pattern that has often come before prolonged price softness. The firm said more holders are now sitting on paper losses as the market’s largest cohorts show signs of fading demand.
According to the report, annual balance growth among whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has turned negative at the fastest pace this year. Monthly growth in that group has been flat since February, indicating a shift away from accumulation and toward modest distribution. CryptoQuant compared the pattern with conditions seen during the 2022 bear market.
The same trend is visible, though less severely, among Bitcoin “dolphins” — holders of 100 to 1,000 BTC, a group heavily influenced by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury activity. Their annual balances are still expanding, but at a much slower rate. Monthly growth has been close to zero, and balances have posted lower highs since September 2025. CryptoQuant said this matters because these cohorts have historically provided key structural support for Bitcoin ’s price.
The weakening holder base is developing as the broader crypto market remains under pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk. CryptoQuant said long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC, but described that as a bearish signal because it suggests few new buyers are entering the market.
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun said the share of Bitcoin supply sitting at an unrealized loss had approached 50% after the pullback from October’s peak, a level not seen since the 2022 bottoming phase. He said a deeper downside area could extend to $40,000 to $45,000 based on realized-price measures, though he viewed $55,000 to $60,000 as a more practical support zone if geopolitical tensions do not intensify and the Federal Reserve avoids further tightening.
Another analyst, Darkfost, said the current range-bound market is difficult to trade because optimism tends to return near the top of the range, while sentiment quickly weakens near the bottom. At current prices near $74,000, he said about 40% of Bitcoin supply was purchased above that level and is now held at a loss.AUD/NZD extended its decline for a third straight session on Friday, trading near 1.2020 during Asian hours. The pair came under pressure as the New Zealand Dollar attracted support from growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may adopt a more restrictive stance in coming meetings.
Market sentiment toward the New Zealand currency improved after Governor Anna Breman signaled that interest rates may need to rise sooner and by more than previously indicated in order to curb persistent inflation. The central bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% at its May meeting on Wednesday, but the vote exposed a sharply divided board. Three policymakers favored an immediate quarter-point increase, while three supported holding rates steady.
Recent domestic data also added to the New Zealand Dollar’s resilience. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 86.5 in May from 80.3 in April, which had been the weakest reading since May 2023. Although the rebound suggests some improvement in household sentiment, confidence remains well below January’s peak, indicating that consumer conditions are still fragile.
At the same time, the Australian Dollar has weakened as investors sharply reduce expectations for further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Softer inflation data for April, along with subdued consumer spending and signs of easing labor market conditions, have led traders to scale back the likelihood of a rate hike in June.
The widening policy gap between the two central banks has helped tilt momentum in favor of the New Zealand Dollar. With the RBNZ appearing more alert to inflation risks and the RBA facing evidence that previous tightening is slowing domestic activity, AUD/NZD has remained on the back foot.
