In the early Asian trading session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair rose to around 1.2970, reflecting a gain of 0.40% for the day. The US Dollar continues to face pressure following disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election in the United States.
The weaker NFP data from October has contributed to the selling pressure on the USD, providing a favorable environment for the GBP/USD pair. This trend is amplified by market sentiment anticipating a further reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Following a substantial 50 basis points cut in September, there is a strong expectation, supported by market prices indicating about a 97% likelihood, that the Fed will lower its policy rate by an additional 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting.
The upcoming presidential election adds another layer of complexity to the dollar’s performance, as traders speculate on the potential implications of different candidates’ policies. The implications of Donald Trump’s economic strategies, particularly regarding immigration and tax reforms, are believed to exert upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, thereby influencing the dollar’s strength. In contrast, Kamala Harris is viewed as a candidate offering continuity, and market participants are weighing the potential impact of these dynamics on the currency landscape.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 4.75%. This decision is anticipated despite predictions that the Labour party’s budget may lead to heightened inflation in the UK in the following year. Money markets are reflecting a growing belief that the BoE is likely to follow through with this reduction, marking it as the second cut of the year.
