gold prices have declined to their lowest point in three weeks, with early Wednesday trading approaching the $3,300 level. The precious metal is under pressure as the US dollar maintains its strength, driven by market sentiments that reflect less aggressive expectations of easing by the Federal Reserve. Investors are awaiting critical developments, including the release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes and a speech by Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The US dollar’s resilience stems from heightened market speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold a cautious stance ahead of the keynote speech. Although recent data — such as soft employment figures and subdued inflation reports — initially fueled hopes of a possible rate cut later this year, the recent tightening of expectations has moderated. The probability of a September rate reduction has declined slightly, now standing at approximately 85%, down from over 90% a week prior. Meanwhile, robust U.S. housing data and geopolitical developments, including ongoing tensions in Ukraine, continue to influence market dynamics and bolster the dollar’s appeal.
Investors are closely watching the Fed’s meeting minutes for further clues on future monetary policy. However, since the July meeting predates the latest employment and inflation data, its guidance may be limited. Ultimately, the focus remains on Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole, where markets will seek signals about the Fed’s policy outlook amid mixed economic signals and global uncertainties.
From a technical perspective, gold ’s recent decline is underpinned by bearish signals on the charts. Key indicators, such as the 21-day simple moving average crossing below the 50-day SMA and a falling Relative Strength Index, suggest increased downside risk. For a sustained retreat, prices would need to convincingly break below the 100-day moving average at approximately $3,311. If bearish momentum persists, support levels could be tested near $3,274 and $3,268, with further downside potential toward the psychological level of $3,250. Conversely, resistance remains near the $3,346 zone, with potential upward targets at recent highs around $3,375 and the $3,400 level.
